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15.11.2022 03:20 PM
US inflation keeps a high chance of recession next year

Meanwhile, US stock indices are recovering on the back of good reports from Walmart, economists predict that US inflation will be higher than last month, and the chances of a recession continue to increase amid rising borrowing costs.

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Forecasts for the personal consumption expenditure price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation — were revised higher and higher after each meeting. Nevertheless, during the year, there has been a sharp decrease in price pressure. The PCE price index will average 2.8% in the last three months. This was due to sluggish economic activity and higher interest rates.

Forecasters also raised quarterly expectations for the so-called core fixed asset price index, which excludes food and energy costs and the consumer price index. Meanwhile, the probability of a recession next year continued to grow, increasing to 65% from 60% in October.

Premarket

As noted above, Walmart shares rose 6.9% in premarket trading after the retailer reported higher-than-expected quarterly earnings and that store sales beat estimates. Walmart also announced a $20 billion stock buyback program.

Vodafone's securities fell by 4.1% in the premarket after the mobile operator lowered its revenue forecast, pointing to the difficult economic situation.

Getty Images' shares fell 11.8% in premarket trading as its quarterly revenue fell short of economists' and Wall Street's forecasts. However, the operator of the visual content market was able to show a profit that exceeded the consensus forecast.

Home Depot's securities sank 1.1% in the premarket after the company exceeded revenue forecasts but only confirmed its profit forecast for the full year without revising it.

Energizer and Rayovac rose 10% in premarket trading after better-than-expected quarterly results.

Estee Lauder is reportedly close to a $2.8 billion deal to buy Tom Ford's fashion company. This will be the largest acquisition of a cosmetics company. Estee Lauder rose 2.1% in the premarket.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the market stabilized a little after yesterday's sharp collapse at the end of the day. The main task for buyers now is to maintain the $3,968 support. While trading will be conducted above this level, we can expect continued demand for risky assets. This will create good prerequisites for strengthening the trading instrument and returning $4,000 under control. The level of $4,038 is located slightly higher. A break in this area will strengthen the hope for a further upward correction with an exit from the resistance of $4,064. The most distant target will be $4,091. In a downward movement, buyers must declare themselves at $3,968. A breakdown of this range will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,942 and open up the possibility of updating the support at $3,905.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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